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July 6, 2005

Is Burger King Hiring?

Keith Foulke, one of the heroes of the Red Sox World Championship season, is done as the Sox’s closer for one very simple reason. For all his ridiculous harping about not caring what Johnny from Burger King thinks, Foulke has managed to pitch about as well as if he was a BK fry cook suddenly summoned to the major leagues.

Easily one of the more unlikable athletes in Boston’s recent blessed sports history, Foulke made no secrets that he could have cared less about who he pitched for as long as his check cleared every two weeks. He was a mercenary and made no bones about it. His signing was exactly the type of transaction that Red Sox fans were forever damning George Steinbrenner and the Yankees for. Signed away from small market Oakland after playing a major role in costing the A’s their 2003 playoff matchup against the Sox, Foulke was for one glorious season the best closer in baseball.

Then reality set in.

The closer is baseball’s most unstable position. Closers who are successful over the course of several seasons are the exception and not the rule. The league’s very best- Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Eric Gagne- are rare talents whose physical skills and personalities allow them to succeed while their peers are stuck in the inevitable peaks and valleys.
The truth of the closer is that most are flawed pitchers whose path to the bullpen is littered with failure. Many are unsuccessful starters forced into the bullpen. Joe Nathan, Dustin Hermanson, Jason Isringhausen, and Jose Mesa, all ranked in the top 10 in saves this season, are former, unremarkable starters. Rivera was a struggling minor league starting pitcher in the Yankees’ farm system coming off a serious arm injury before he was plugged into a relief role.

With the history of so many other formerly “great” closers well-chronicled, Foulke’s drop-off is not surprising, particularly considering his pitching repertoire. Foulke’s out pitch is his changeup, a rarity for major league closers, most of whom feature a mid-90’s fastball. Foulke rarely hits 90 with his fastball but the subtle 5-7 mph difference between his fastball and changeup can be maddeningly difficult for hitters to adjust to late in ballgames.

But if his fastball doesn’t get into the upper 80’s, Foulke’s fastball and changeup essentially become the same, easily hittable pitch. Without a 5-7 mph difference in Foulke’s pitch speeds, major league hitters can swing away at what are basically batting practice fastballs.

Regardless of the Sox’s first place standing, Foulke’s abysmal season has cost the Sox. For the first time in almost a decade, the Yankees seem seriously flawed. New York is joyously erratic, capable of weeks of bad games. Though the Sox display some of the same erratic tendencies as the Yankees, Boston’s offense has put Foulke in situations to close out games and pick up games in the standings against New York. But Foulke’s inability to close out those games or hold ties has cost Boston dearly- five games in the standings versus New York.

On April 6th, Foulke gave up the winning run against the Yankees. That’s one game. On April 19th, Foulke was unable to hold a tie against the Blue Jays on a day when the Yankees lost. 2-games. On April 26th, Foulke blew a save against Baltimore; the Yankees won their game that night. That’s another game. On June 28th, Foulke blew a save and lost a game against Cleveland on a night the Yankees lost. And finally, there was his performance on July 4th when his fifth loss and fourth blown save of the season cost the Sox a game in the standings against the Yankees.

Imagine getting to the All-Star break nine games up on the Yankees. That’s the very real impact of Foulke’s poor performance.

Obviously, there are other Sox players who have cost Boston games in the standings against New York. But none have done as much damage as Foulke.

What I find surprising is the number of people who say that Sox fans should be patient with Foulke because of last season’s success. Undoubtedly, Foulke played a major role in the Sox championship. Without him, the Sox would have almost certainly been knocked off by the Yankees. But that was last season and in a town that reveres the “what have you done for me lately” philosophy of Bill Belichick, it seems irrational to suddenly give Foulke a pass because he was good fourteen months ago.

Forget about artificial timelines that some have suggested to gauge Foulke’s ability. Why give Foulke until August to prove that he is better? He’s proven through the first 4-months of the season that he can’t be trusted to close out games. If he is going to try and pitch through his troubles, he should be doing it on a stage that isn’t going to hurt the Sox. Either the minor leagues or mop-up duty seem like good ideas right now.

Do you jettison Foulke entirely? No, for a couple of reasons.

One, he makes good money and is signed through next season with a mutual option for 2007.

Two, he could snap out of his funk next week or next season. However, just because he could snap out of his funk does not mean that Terry Francona needs to keep handing him the ball in the 9th inning. Theo Epstein needs to address the bullpen situation as soon as possible. The longer the Sox’s bullpen keeps on blowing games, the higher the price for bullpen arms will become. Epstein is almost sure to pick up a quality arm via a trade but may also speed up the signing of first round pick Craig Hansen, a hard throwing relief pitcher who many scouts feel is major league ready, or bring up a minor leaguer like Jon Papelbon who was recently promoted to AAA.

Worst case scenario for the Sox is bringing in a new relief pitcher to either close or set-up Mike Timlin which would probably cost them some minor league talent. Best case scenario for the Sox is they bring in a new relief pitcher, Foulke returns to his 2004 form and suddenly the Sox have a wealth of options in the bullpen.

But why Red Sox fans would be blindly loyal to a pitcher who has made it abundantly clear that he shares none of the same warm feelings is ridiculous. Foulke has been ineffective this entire season. His job is to close out games for the Sox and he has failed to do that. As long as the Sox make the necessary moves to stabilize the bullpen, I’m not going to lose any sleep because Keith Foulke’s major league career may be grinding to a halt. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.